CBS’ renew/cancel standings for week 10 of the 2016-17 season are bullish on a veteran show despite its lowest-ever ratings.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Elementary (O) 🐻 🐻 0.7 0
Pure Genius DSW 0.9 0.2
Code Black (O) 🐻 🐻 0.97 0.27
The Odd Couple (O) 🐻 🐻 1.02 0.32
Life in Pieces 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 0.6
Criminal Minds (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.55 0.85
Blue Bloods (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.21 1.03
Hawaii Five-0 (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.26 1.10
MacGyver (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.17 0.97
Mom 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.38 0.68
NCIS: Los Angeles (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.48 0.78
2 Broke Girls 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.43 0.73
Man with a Plan (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.38 0.68
Bull (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.69 0.99
The Great Indoors (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.54 0.84
Kevin Can Wait (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.95 1.25
The Big Bang Theory 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 3.42 2.72
Madam Secretary (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.01 0.31
NCIS: New Orleans (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.29 0.59
Scorpion (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.25 0.55
NCIS (O) Renewed 1.89 1.19

Note: Averages and index numbers for “Elementary,” “Madam Secretary” and “NCIS: Los Angeles” are through Nov. 20. Final numbers for Nov. 27 were delayed by the Thanksgiving holiday.

“Criminal Minds” has hit series lows twice already this season. Yet the Bear is upgrading it to a likely renewal this week.

Why? CBS has other fires to put out, ones that don’t involve a veteran show that’s still pulling in ratings above the network average. “Pure Genius” is a Dead Show Walking, “Code Black” is struggling and third-year shows “NCIS: New Orleans,” “Scorpion” and “Madam Secretary” are all fortunate to have the full force of the Third Season Rule behind them.

A vocal (though who knows how large) contingent of “Criminal Minds” fans vowed to drop the show after the dismissal of long-time star Thomas Gibson before the start of this season. The show’s numbers suggest some of them followed through on the threat. Just not enough to put “Criminal Minds” in danger.

 

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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