CBS’ renew/cancel standings for week 13 of the 2016-17 season look at the big picture for CBS, which is both good and not so good.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Elementary (O) 🐻 🐻 0.69 -0.01
Pure Genius DSW 0.9 0.2
Code Black (O) 🐻 🐻 0.98 0.28
The Odd Couple (O) 🐻 🐻 1.0 0.3
Life in Pieces 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.29 0.59
Criminal Minds (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.5 0.8
Blue Bloods (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.21 1.03
Hawaii Five-0 (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.24 1.07
MacGyver (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.14 0.93
Mom 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.39 0.69
NCIS: Los Angeles (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.47 0.77
2 Broke Girls 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.39 0.69
Man with a Plan (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.33 0.63
Bull (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.63 0.93
The Great Indoors (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.5 0.8
Kevin Can Wait (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.87 1.17
The Big Bang Theory 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 3.39 2.69
Madam Secretary (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.99 0.29
NCIS: New Orleans (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.27 0.57
Scorpion (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.23 0.53
NCIS (O) Renewed 1.86 1.16

 

As noted last week, CBS’ scripted shows are down a collective 13 percentΒ this season vs. the same time last year. Yet you look up above and the majority of the network’s shows are likely or certain renewals.

Here’s the thing: If most shows are down (there have been a couple of exceptions, like “NCIS: LA” and “Hawaii Five-0”), then in terms of each show’s relative position on the network, it’s the same as if they’re all even or they’re all up. Which is why “Criminal Minds” or “2 Broke Girls” or “Life in Pieces” are at least a 50-50 shot even though they’re well off last year’s average.

Remember: The purpose of the Renew/Cancel Index is to predict which shows on each network will be renewed. It’s not to assess the state of network TV as a whole (hint: It’s not great, Bob).

Only a little more than a third of the season is behind us, so these standings have a lot of time to change. But CBS’ recent history is one of stability, and there’s no reason to think that will suddenly end in 2017.

The Bear is taking the next two weeks off as there’s next to no original programming between now and the new year. He’ll return the week of Jan. 9.

 

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceledΒ yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

TheΒ Renew/Cancel IndexΒ is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Β Shows that have ended their seasonsΒ have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their finalΒ episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

  • http://foolishwatcher.com/2016/12/20/that-time-tom-arnold-of-all-people-could-have-saved-us-all-from-donald-trump-but-didnt/ That time Tom Arnold, of all people, could have saved us all from Donald Trump but didn’t. – foolish watcher

    […] And though ratings are down on CBS, renewal chances remain strong. It’s a hard out here for a network. […]

    Like

  • http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/uncategorized/ransom-premiere-cbs-new-crime-drama-saturdays/ Can CBS’ ‘Ransom’ make Saturdays happen again? – TV By The Numbers by zap2it.com

    […] RELATED: CBS vs. Cancel Bear: A sinking tide keeps all boats afloat […]

    Like

blog comments powered by Disqus