CBS’ renew/cancel standings for week 22 of the 2016-17 season see a cloud looming on the network’s horizon.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Elementary (O) 🐻 🐻 0.68 -0.02
Pure Genius Canceled 0.85 0.15
Doubt (O) 🐻 🐻 0.8 0.1
Training Day 🐻 🐻 0.8 0.1
Code Black (O) 🐻 🐻 0.97 0.27
The Odd Couple (O) 🐻 🐻 1.01 0.31
Ransom (Sat.) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.43 -0.09
Life in Pieces 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.31 0.61
Criminal Minds (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.43 0.73
Blue Bloods (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.21 1.03
Hawaii Five-0 (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.22 1.04
MacGyver (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.13 0.92
Mom 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.46 0.76
NCIS: Los Angeles (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.42 0.72
2 Broke Girls 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.38 0.68
Man with a Plan (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.35 0.65
Superior Donuts (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.57 0.87
Bull (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.54 0.84
The Great Indoors (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.55 0.85
Kevin Can Wait (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.78 1.08
The Big Bang Theory 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 3.33 2.63
Madam Secretary (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.96 0.26
NCIS: New Orleans (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.22 0.52
Scorpion (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.23 0.53
NCIS (O) Renewed 1.85 1.15

 

The puns are easy: The Bear ‘Doubts’ this show will be back next season. It’s reasonable to ‘Doubt’ CBS has a hit on its hands. No ‘Doubt’ about it — the ratings are weak.

They’re easy, but they also skate over a bigger problem at CBS. The network has launched three new 10 p.m. dramas this season. None of them has managed to average as much as a 1.0 rating among adults 18-49 — heck, only two single episodes of any of them so far (both of “Pure Genius”) have managed that much.

That, not to put too fine a point on it, is not good. The last hour of primetime on ABC, CBS and NBC underperforms the other two hours in general, true. CBS is under that line on four of the six nights it airs dramas at 10 (including “Elementary”), and five of those six hours are down vs. last season.

“Doubt” is only part of the network’s 10 o’clock problem. It’s starting out as a likely cancellation, as have CBS’ other new 10 p.m. dramas. Those shows may be going away, but the problem isn’t.

 

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. Any scripted show on Saturdays will use the same formula.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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