CBS’ renew/cancel standings for week 24 of the 2016-17 season look high and low for bubble shows.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Elementary (O) 🐻 🐻 0.67 -0.03
Pure Genius Canceled 0.85 0.15
Doubt (O) Canceled 0.7 0.0
Training Day 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.06
Code Black (O) 🐻 🐻 0.97 0.27
The Odd Couple (O) 🐻 🐻 1.01 0.31
Ransom (Sat.) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.43 -0.09
Life in Pieces 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.31 0.61
Criminal Minds (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.41 0.71
Blue Bloods (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.21 1.03
Hawaii Five-0 (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.21 1.03
MacGyver (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.12 0.90
Mom 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.45 0.75
NCIS: Los Angeles (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.39 0.69
2 Broke Girls 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.36 0.66
Man with a Plan (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.33 0.63
Superior Donuts (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.42 0.72
Bull (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.53 0.83
The Great Indoors (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.54 0.84
Kevin Can Wait (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.76 1.06
The Big Bang Theory 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 3.3 2.6
Madam Secretary (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.95 0.25
NCIS: New Orleans (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.21 0.51
Scorpion (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.22 0.52
NCIS (O) Renewed 1.83 1.13

 

“Pure Genius” and “Doubt” are gone. “Elementary,” “Code Black” and “The Odd Couple” are likely at this point to join them. And just about everything else on CBS is likely to be back next season.

It’s a network without a bubble. “Ransom” is the only show rated as a tossup at the moment, mostly because Saturday scripted programming on a broadcast network is an anomaly in the Bear’s lifetime. “Madam Secretary” has Third Season Rule protection, or it would probably be in a precarious spot.

“The Odd Couple” may be the closest thing to an actual bubble show on the network, if you were to squint really hard. Its ratings are somewhat better than the lower-end dramas, but also lower than any other comedy on the network. It’s still a likely goner in the Bear’s eyes.

The rest of the lineup is fairly comfortably above replacement level. The Bear fully expects most of those shows to be included in CBS’ traditional spring mass renewal.

One other note: With contract negotiations for the cast looking positive, the Bear is bumping “The Big Bang Theory” from likely renewalΒ to sure bet.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceledΒ yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

TheΒ Renew/Cancel IndexΒ is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. Any scripted show on Saturdays will use the same formula.

Shows that have ended their seasonsΒ have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their finalΒ episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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