CBS’ renew/cancel standings for week 30 of the 2016-17 season reconsider a recent prediction.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Elementary (O)||🐻 🐻||0.67||-0.03|
|Training Day (some Sat.)||🐻||0.65||-0.05|
|Code Black (O)||🐻 🐻||0.97||0.27|
|The Odd Couple (O)||🐻 🐻||1.01||0.31|
|Ransom (Sat.)||🐻 🐻||0.42||-0.10|
|Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders (O)||🐻 🐻||0.84||0.14|
|Life in Pieces||Renewed||1.28||0.58|
|Criminal Minds (O)||Renewed||1.38||0.68|
|Blue Bloods (F) (O)||Renewed||1.17||0.97|
|Hawaii Five-0 (F) (O)||Renewed||1.18||0.99|
|MacGyver (F) (O)||Renewed||1.08||0.84|
|NCIS: Los Angeles (O)||Renewed||1.35||0.65|
|2 Broke Girls||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.31||0.61|
|Man with a Plan (O)||Renewed||1.28||0.58|
|Superior Donuts (O)||Renewed||1.25||0.55|
|The Great Indoors (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.47||0.77|
|Kevin Can Wait (O)||Renewed||1.68||0.98|
|The Big Bang Theory||Renewed||3.17||2.47|
|Madam Secretary (O)||Renewed||0.93||0.23|
|NCIS: New Orleans (O)||Renewed||1.19||0.49|
Just a couple weeks ago the Bear proclaimed “The Great Indoors” remained a likely renewal. Now, two weeks closer to the end of the season with no word on the show’s future, that proclamation is looking a little premature.
So while the Bear is busy clearing out tossups at the other networks, “The Great Indoors” is back in no-man’s-land.
On paper the show would seem to be safe, as it remains CBS’ No. 3 comedy behind “The Big Bang Theory” and “Kevin Can Wait” and has drawn better than several comedies already renewed for 2017-18. Its 1.47 rating among adults 18-49 is comfortably above replacement level and also a good bit above CBS’ scripted average for the season.
But it also hasn’t made much of its post-“Big Bang” time period. “The Great Indoors” has retained only about 48 percent of its lead-in audience this season. That’s lower than the mediocre job of retention(about 54 percent) “Life in Pieces” did coming out of “Big Bang” in 2015-16.
Assuming CBS wants to pair spinoff “Young Sheldon” with “The Big Bang Theory” for at least part of next season, “The Great Indoors” could end up as a show without a home.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. Any scripted show on Saturdays will use the same formula.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.