CBS’ renew/cancel standings for week 30 of the 2016-17 season reconsider a recent prediction.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Elementary (O) 🐻 🐻 0.67 -0.03
Pure Genius Canceled 0.85 0.15
Doubt (O) Canceled 0.7 0.0
Training Day (some Sat.) 🐻 0.65 -0.05
Code Black (O) 🐻 🐻 0.97 0.27
The Odd Couple (O) 🐻 🐻 1.01 0.31
Ransom (Sat.) 🐻 🐻 0.42 -0.10
Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders (O) 🐻 🐻 0.84 0.14
Life in Pieces Renewed 1.28 0.58
Criminal Minds (O) Renewed 1.38 0.68
Blue Bloods (F) (O) Renewed 1.17 0.97
Hawaii Five-0 (F) (O) Renewed 1.18 0.99
MacGyver (F) (O) Renewed 1.08 0.84
Mom Renewed 1.43 0.73
NCIS: Los Angeles (O) Renewed 1.35 0.65
2 Broke Girls 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.31 0.61
Man with a Plan (O) Renewed 1.28 0.58
Superior Donuts (O) Renewed 1.25 0.55
Bull (O) Renewed 1.49 0.79
The Great Indoors (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.47 0.77
Kevin Can Wait (O) Renewed 1.68 0.98
The Big Bang Theory Renewed 3.17 2.47
Madam Secretary (O) Renewed 0.93 0.23
NCIS: New Orleans (O) Renewed 1.19 0.49
Scorpion (O) Renewed 1.2 0.5
NCIS (O) Renewed 1.78 1.08

 

Just a couple weeks ago the Bear proclaimed “The Great Indoors” remained a likely renewal. Now, two weeks closer to the end of the season with no word on the show’s future, that proclamation is looking a little premature.

So while the Bear is busy clearing out tossups at the other networks, “The Great Indoors” is back in no-man’s-land.

On paper the show would seem to be safe, as it remains CBS’ No. 3 comedy behind “The Big Bang Theory” and “Kevin Can Wait” and has drawn better than several comedies already renewed for 2017-18. Its 1.47 rating among adults 18-49 is comfortably above replacement level and also a good bit above CBS’ scripted average for the season.

But it also hasn’t made much of its post-“Big Bang” time period. “The Great Indoors” has retained only about 48 percent of its lead-in audience this season. That’s lower than the mediocre job of retention(about 54 percent) “Life in Pieces” did coming out of “Big Bang” in 2015-16.

Assuming CBS wants to pair spinoff “Young Sheldon” with “The Big Bang Theory” for at least part of next season, “The Great Indoors” could end up as a show without a home.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. Any scripted show on Saturdays will use the same formula.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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