CBS’ renew/cancel standings for week 4 of the 2016-17 season note that the Third Season Rule is a good thing for part of the network’s biggest franchise.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Elementary (O) 🐻🐻 0.75 0.05
Code Black (O) 🐻🐻🐻 1.1 0.4
Criminal Minds (O) 🐻🐻🐻 1.67 0.97
Blue Bloods (F) (O) 🐻🐻🐻🐻 1.28 1.13
Hawaii Five-0 (F) (O) 🐻🐻🐻🐻 1.3 1.16
NCIS: Los Angeles (O) 🐻🐻🐻🐻 1.47 0.77
2 Broke Girls 🐻🐻🐻🐻 1.7 1.00
MacGyver (F) (O) 🐻🐻🐻🐻 1.3 1.16
Bull (O) 🐻🐻🐻🐻 1.9 1.2
Kevin Can Wait (O) 🐻🐻🐻🐻 2.4 1.7
The Big Bang Theory 🐻🐻🐻🐻 3.58 2.88
Madam Secretary (O) 🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻 1.1 0.4
NCIS: New Orleans (O) 🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻 1.37 0.67
Scorpion (O) 🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻 1.45 0.75
NCIS (O) Renewed 2.0 1.3

 

Let’s get this out of the way: “NCIS: New Orleans” will be back in 2017-18. It’s covered by the Third Season Rule, which states that shows in their third full season, which are produced by their network’s affiliated studio, just about always get a fourth season.

“NCIS: New Orleans” fits all those criteria, and it’s a shoo-in to go to the very green syndication pastures its fellow “NCIS” shows enjoy. All that is a good thing for the show, especially at this moment, because it’s not doing especially well in the ratings.

The show began Season 3 in a new timeslot, an hour removed from “NCIS,” and premiered to a series low 1.4 in adults 18-49. It rose slightly in its second week, then fell again to a low of 1.2 last week. It’s down 19 percent year to year and trailing the three-week average for the show it replaced, the canceled “Limitless,” by 25 percent.

It’s likely that “NCIS: New Orleans” will stabilize in the 1.3-1.5 range for the season, which will make the near-inevitable renewal look a little better. But it’s not pretty right now.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻🐻🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻🐻🐻🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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