CBS’ renew/cancel standings for week 4 of the 2016-17 season note that the Third Season Rule is a good thing for part of the network’s biggest franchise.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Code Black (O)||🐻🐻🐻||1.1||0.4|
|Criminal Minds (O)||🐻🐻🐻||1.67||0.97|
|Blue Bloods (F) (O)||🐻🐻🐻🐻||1.28||1.13|
|Hawaii Five-0 (F) (O)||🐻🐻🐻🐻||1.3||1.16|
|NCIS: Los Angeles (O)||🐻🐻🐻🐻||1.47||0.77|
|2 Broke Girls||🐻🐻🐻🐻||1.7||1.00|
|MacGyver (F) (O)||🐻🐻🐻🐻||1.3||1.16|
|Kevin Can Wait (O)||🐻🐻🐻🐻||2.4||1.7|
|The Big Bang Theory||🐻🐻🐻🐻||3.58||2.88|
|Madam Secretary (O)||🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻||1.1||0.4|
|NCIS: New Orleans (O)||🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻||1.37||0.67|
Let’s get this out of the way: “NCIS: New Orleans” will be back in 2017-18. It’s covered by the Third Season Rule, which states that shows in their third full season, which are produced by their network’s affiliated studio, just about always get a fourth season.
“NCIS: New Orleans” fits all those criteria, and it’s a shoo-in to go to the very green syndication pastures its fellow “NCIS” shows enjoy. All that is a good thing for the show, especially at this moment, because it’s not doing especially well in the ratings.
The show began Season 3 in a new timeslot, an hour removed from “NCIS,” and premiered to a series low 1.4 in adults 18-49. It rose slightly in its second week, then fell again to a low of 1.2 last week. It’s down 19 percent year to year and trailing the three-week average for the show it replaced, the canceled “Limitless,” by 25 percent.
It’s likely that “NCIS: New Orleans” will stabilize in the 1.3-1.5 range for the season, which will make the near-inevitable renewal look a little better. But it’s not pretty right now.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻🐻🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻🐻🐻🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.