CBS’ renew/cancel standings for week 5 of the 2016-17 season make a not exactly bold prediction.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Elementary (O) 🐻 🐻 0.77 0.07
Code Black (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.4
The Odd Couple (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.4
Criminal Minds (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.67 0.97
Blue Bloods (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.24 1.07
Hawaii Five-0 (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.28 1.13
NCIS: Los Angeles (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.53 0.83
2 Broke Girls 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.6 0.9
MacGyver (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.26 1.10
Bull (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.83 1.13
Kevin Can Wait (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.34 1.64
The Big Bang Theory 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 3.56 2.86
Madam Secretary (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.4
NCIS: New Orleans (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.33 0.63
Scorpion (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.4 0.7
NCIS (O) Renewed 1.96 1.26

 

The Bear is not exactly going out on a limb here, but it should still be said: “Bull” is pretty likely to earn a second season on CBS.

The drama from the CBS Procedural Engineering Laboratories has performed well so far. It’s the No. 2 drama on the network so far this season (behind its lead-in, “NCIS”) and has improved its timeslot vs. last season — it’s outperforming what “NCIS: New Orleans” did last season.

“Bull” is about as CBS a show as CBS has — whatever else you might say about the network, it knows its audience pretty well. The solid ratings for “Bull” are no surprise, so it should be no surprise to see it picked up for a second season come spring.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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