Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 1 of 2017-18. A new series looks to be safe for the time being.

Show Status 18-49 rating
Renew/Cancel Index
The Exorcist (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.5 0.02
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.7 0.0
The Mick (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.9 0.2
The Last Man on Earth (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.9 0.2
Gotham 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.9 0.2
Lethal Weapon 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.2 0.5
The Orville (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.4
Bob’s Burgers (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 0.6
Family Guy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 0.6
Ghosted (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.4 0.7
Star (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.8 1.1
Empire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.4 1.7
The Simpsons Renewed 1.4 0.7

“The Orville” has aired four episodes so far, but just one in season, which is what the Bear cares about. It did … OK. The show’s 1.1 rating at least held even with the last preseason airing against stiffer competition.

That — and the fact that it’s from Seth MacFarlane, who has a long and profitable partnership with FOX — is what makes “The Orville” a likely renewal. At least for now.

The margin for error is not huge for “The Orville” — “Pitch” started with a 1.1 last season, too. But MacFarlane’s involvement gives it a cushion the former show didn’t have.

“The Orville” is safe for now, but the Bear will keep a close eye on it.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2018

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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