FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 10 of the 2016-17 season bump a long-running show up to certain-renewal status.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Scream Queens (O)||🐻 🐻||0.68||-0.02|
|Rosewood (O)||🐻 🐻||0.78||0.08|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.69||0.29|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.97||0.27|
|Pitch (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.88||0.18|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.96||0.26|
|Son of Zorn (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.28||0.58|
|Lucifer||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.06||0.36|
|New Girl (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.97||0.27|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.14||0.44|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.86||1.16|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.43||0.73|
|Empire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||3.47||2.77|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.18||0.48|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.98||1.28|
Note: The rating and index number for “Bob’s Burgers” are through Nov. 20. Final numbers for Nov. 27 were delayed by the Thanksgiving holiday.
“The Simpsons” is the longest-running scripted primetime series in TV history. “Family Guy” will likely never catch it, but its own improbably long run has earned it enough cred at FOX to end, like “The Simpsons,” pretty much whenever it wants to. That won’t be this season.
The show is in its 14th season, and its 11th since FOX resurrected it from cancellation in 2005 (predating the current revival trend in TV by nearly a decade). Its ratings are stable, down a scant 5 percent from this time last season when FOX’s scripted slate as a whole is off by 16 percent vs. fall 2015. It brings in serious revenue for FOX’s parent company via syndication and streaming.
In short, as long as Seth MacFarlane wants to keep making “Family Guy,” FOX will let him keep making “Family Guy.” Consider it a lock for renewal.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.