FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 11 of the 2016-17 season brush off concerns about declining numbers for the network’s top show.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Scream Queens (O)||🐻 🐻||0.66||-0.04|
|Rosewood (O)||🐻 🐻||0.77||0.07|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.69||0.29|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.99||0.29|
|Pitch (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.86||0.16|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.96||0.26|
|Son of Zorn (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.29||0.59|
|Lucifer||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.06||0.36|
|New Girl (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.95||0.25|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.13||0.43|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.83||1.13|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.45||0.75|
|Empire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||3.39||2.69|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.18||0.48|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||2.02||1.32|
So, yes, “Empire” has fallen considerably in the ratings this season, and it’s gone below a 3.0 in adults 18-49 a couple times in recent weeks — the first and second time that’s ever happened to the show.
So what? FOX is not going to dump the top-rated drama on broadcast TV. “Empire” is a lock to return next season.
The show’s gravity-defying first season had the effect of setting the bar so high that it would likely never reach it again. What “Empire” has done since then is just act like a normal network drama, falling year to year but staying within a fairly narrow range week to week. That’s what shows do.
Is “Empire” the world-beating network savior it was two years ago? No. But it’s still arguably the most important piece of FOX’s lineup at the moment, and no way the network lets that go.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.