Cancel Bear vs. FOX, week 11: ‘The Mick’ gets a bump up to likely renewal

Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 11 of the 2017-18 season, which argue for the extension of a comedy.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
The Exorcist (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.41 -0.11
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 🐻 🐻 0.64 -0.06
The Mick (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.79 0.09
The Last Man on Earth (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.84 0.14
Gotham 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.88 0.18
Lethal Weapon 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.02 0.32
Bob’s Burgers (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.27 0.57
Family Guy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.2 0.5
Ghosted (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.13 0.43
Lucifer 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.93 0.23
The Gifted (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.07 0.37
Star (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.35 0.65
Empire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.93 1.23
The Orville (O) Renewed 0.99 0.29
The Simpsons (O) Renewed 1.64 0.94

 

A week ago, the Bear argued that FOX’s thin roster of comedies would likely help “The Last Man on Earth” stick around another season.

It’s hard to make that argument for “Last Man” and not make it for “The Mick,” and so this week the Bear is also bumping “The Mick” up from tossup to likely renewal.

The two shows have nearly identical ratings (“The Mick” is a few hundredths of a point behind “Last Man”), and both are products of FOX’s sister studio. Whatever streaming or syndication deals there are to be made for “The Mick,” the money will stay within the company.

Put “The Mick” down as a likely renewal for next season.

One note: The Bear is proceeding for the moment as though FOX will be under its current management next season. If a rumored merger with Disney does happen, that may change. Until such time, however, it’s business as usual for FOX predictions.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2018

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.