FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 12 of the 2016-17 season suggest a bubble show will be waiting a while to learn its fate.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Scream Queens (O) 🐻 🐻 0.64 -0.06
Rosewood (O) 🐻 🐻 0.77 0.07
The Exorcist (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.68 0.27
The Last Man on Earth (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.98 0.28
Pitch (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.85 0.15
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.97 0.27
Son of Zorn (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.28 0.58
Lucifer 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.06 0.36
New Girl (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.93 0.23
Gotham 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.13 0.43
Lethal Weapon 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.78 1.08
Family Guy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.44 0.74
Empire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 3.28 2.58
Bob’s Burgers (O) Renewed 1.18 0.48
The Simpsons (O) Renewed 2.05 1.35

 

“Pitch” ended its first season last week more or less where it’s been all fall: just slightly above replacement level on a network crowded with modest- to poor-performing shows.

That field may get yet more crowded in the early months of 2017, which is why the Bear is keeping “Pitch” a tossup — albeit a soft one — for the time being.

“Pitch’s” stats aren’t great — its average is below 1.0 in adults 18-49 and has been ever since week 4. Even removing “Empire” from the equation, it’s still below average for FOX’s scripted shows.

Yet the network has been known to keep underperforming shows afloat, and “Pitch” supposedly has fans in high places. If some of FOX’s midseason shows land, it’s probably done for. If not, though? Weirder things have happened. But “Pitch” will have to wait a while to hear its fate.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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