FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 13 of the 2016-17 season are bullish on a veteran comedy despite its low ratings.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Scream Queens (O) 🐻 0.62 -0.08
Rosewood (O) 🐻 🐻 0.77 0.07
The Exorcist (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.67 0.26
The Last Man on Earth (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.98 0.28
Pitch (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.85 0.15
Son of Zorn (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.28 0.58
Lucifer 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.06 0.36
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.96 0.26
New Girl (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.92 0.22
Gotham 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.13 0.43
Lethal Weapon 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.78 1.08
Star 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.2 1.5
Family Guy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.44 0.74
Empire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 3.21 2.51
Bob’s Burgers (O) Renewed 1.18 0.48
The Simpsons (O) Renewed 2.05 1.35

 

 

It’s no surprise that “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” has taken a ratings hit vs. last season. The show aired the first half of its 2015-16 season on Sundays, where it benefited from regular NFL ratings bounces.

But the fact remains that “Nine-Nine” is down, and is averaging under a 1.0 in same-day ratings this season. But the Bear is upgrading it to likely renewal — and not just because it’s almost Christmas.

NBCUniversal, which produces the show, secured a syndication deal for it (with TBS) in October. The deal covers the first five seasons of the show. Since “Nine-Nine” is currently in Season 4, you see the incentive for NBCUniversal to make it worth FOX’s while to stay on the air.

FOX, meanwhile, has seen its live-action comedy brand fizzle in the ratings the past couple of seasons. “New Girl” (also a likely renewal) and “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” are not hits these days, but they’re just strong enough to stick around another year while the network tries to rebuild its comedy slate.

Also this week, “Star” begins its run as a likely renewal after its solid premiere. The Bear will have a better picture of the show after it begins its regular run in January.

The Bear is taking the next two weeks off as there’s next to no original programming between now and the new year. He’ll return the week of Jan. 9.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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    […] Brooklyn Nine-Nine is probably safe, thank the syndication gods. […]

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