Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 16 of the 2017-18 season.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
The Exorcist (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.41 -0.11
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 🐻 🐻 0.65 -0.05
The Mick (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.78 0.08
The Last Man on Earth (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.87 0.17
Gotham 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.88 0.18
Lethal Weapon 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.03 0.33
LA to Vegas (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.95 0.25
Bob’s Burgers (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.27 0.57
Family Guy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.24 0.54
Ghosted (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.18 0.48
Lucifer 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.90 0.20
The Gifted (O) Renewed 1.01 0.31
Star (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.34 0.64
9-1-1 (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.65 0.95
Empire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.92 1.22
The Orville (O) Renewed 0.99 0.29
The Simpsons (O) Renewed 1.76 1.06

 

In the context of FOX’s Tuesday comedies, the 1.1 rating for the “LA to Vegas” premiere was pretty darn good. Then came week 2 and a more pedestrian 0.8. In other words, it’s about as tossup as tossup can be at the moment.

The question, then, is whether the show will stay near the level it’s at now or continue to drop off. If it’s the former, then the Bear will probably nudge it up to a likely renewal (after all, “The Mick” and “The Last Man on Earth” are likely pickups with similar profiles).

If it’s the latter, then, well, the Bear will have a nice meal come spring. The Bear will be keeping a close eye on “LA to Vegas” for the remainder of its run.

One other note: As was the case in 2016, the Bear is leaving “The X-Files” out of the renew/cancel index. The desire and availability of the show’s principals are likely to be deciding factors in whether the show returns in the future moreso than ratings.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2018

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

  • http://foolishwatcher.com/2018/01/16/everyone-has-an-opinion-on-this-aziz-ansari-shitstorm-but-this-the-good-place-actress-take-is-the-best/ Everyone has an opinion on this Aziz Ansari shitstorm, but this ‘The Good Place’ actress’ take is the best – foolish watcher

    […] LA to Vegas started well but is now a toss-up. We’ll have to see how it does this week. […]

    Like

blog comments powered by Disqus