FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 13 of the 2016-17 season have a rosy outlook for a new show (for now).

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Bones (O) Final season 0.9 0.2
Scream Queens (O) 🐻 0.61 -0.09
Rosewood (some F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.75 0.05
The Exorcist (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.67 0.26
Sleepy Hollow (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.60 0.16
The Last Man on Earth (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.98 0.28
Pitch (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.85 0.15
Son of Zorn (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.33 0.63
Lucifer 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.06 0.36
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.99 0.29
New Girl (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.92 0.22
Gotham 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.13 0.43
Lethal Weapon 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.75 1.05
Star (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.9 1.2
The Mick (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.05 1.35
Family Guy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.48 0.78
Empire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 3.21 2.51
Bob’s Burgers (O) Renewed 1.21 0.51
The Simpsons (O) Renewed 2.18 1.48

 

“The Mick” got about as big a launch as FOX is capable of giving a show, launching it after a late-afternoon NFL game on New Year’s Day. It lived up to the spot, tying “This Is Us” for the best series debut of the season so far at 2.8.

Then it came way down in episode 2. Its Tuesday debut lost more than half of that premiere rating, earning a 1.3. But the Bear still has it pegged as a likely renewal for now.

Such is the sorry state of FOX’s Tuesday that a 1.3 is the highest rating for any episode of any Tuesday show on the network this season. So if it can stay above the 1.0 line, it’ll probably be back in 2017-18.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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    […] The Mick is looking strong for Fox, and will probably be renewed. Star is also doing well, even without an Empire lead-in. […]

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