FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 17 of the 2016-17 season are not terribly high on a show recently shipped to a new night.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology. (Because of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, final ratings for Friday and Sunday shows weren’t in at posting time.)
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Bones (O)||Final season||0.9||0.2|
|Scream Queens (O)||🐻||0.61||-0.09|
|Rosewood* (some F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.75||0.08|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.67||0.26|
|Sleepy Hollow (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.60||0.16|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.98||0.28|
|Pitch (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.85||0.15|
|Son of Zorn (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.33||0.63|
|Lucifer||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.06||0.36|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.99||0.29|
|New Girl (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.95||0.25|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.13||0.43|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.72||1.02|
|Star (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.73||1.03|
|The Mick (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.77||1.07|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.48||0.78|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.21||0.51|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||2.18||1.48|
*The index number for “Rosewood” is a weighted average of its performance on Thursdays and Fridays.
“Rosewood” shifted to Friday with the new year, and its first couple of outings there aren’t much below the show’s Thursday average. That’s the good news.
The bad news is the show didn’t have all that far to fall. “Rosewood” was barely above replacement level on Thursdays in the fall, so the minor dropoff on Fridays suggests that while a good amount of the audience followed it, there’s just not a very big audience for the show regardless of the night.
The Bear noted earlier this season that a sophomore slump for “Rosewood” was easy to foresee. That hasn’t changed, and “Rosewood” is still likely to be done after this season.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.