FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 18 of the 2016-17 season check in on a show that barely made it to this season.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Bones (O)||Final season||0.87||0.17|
|Scream Queens (O)||🐻||0.61||-0.09|
|Rosewood (some F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.73||0.10|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.67||0.26|
|Sleepy Hollow (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.57||0.12|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.98||0.28|
|Pitch (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.85||0.15|
|Son of Zorn (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.29||0.59|
|Lucifer||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.06||0.36|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.99||0.29|
|New Girl (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.95||0.25|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.13||0.43|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.69||0.99|
|Star (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.6||0.9|
|The Mick (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.62||0.92|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.47||0.77|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.21||0.51|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||2.23||1.53|
*The index number for “Rosewood” is a weighted average of its performance on Thursdays and Fridays.
The Bear got “Sleepy Hollow’s” prediction wrong last season, figuring a sub-1 rating for the show would be enough to kill it after three seasons totaling only 49 episodes. It managed to survive, however, albeit without star Nicole Beharie.
At the risk of being fooled twice, however, the Bear is marking “Sleepy Hollow” as a likely cancellation again. Its early returns on Friday this season are, to use a technical term, poor. It’s averaging a little under a 0.6 rating, down 24 percent from its Friday average for the second half of last season.
Even with the Friday multiplier taken into account, the show is barely above replacement level at this point. Its performance is not likely to get much better the rest of the season, and it’s not likely to get another shot next season.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.