FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 21 of the 2016-17 season have a new series starting out in safe territory.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Bones (O)||Final season||0.83||0.13|
|Scream Queens (O)||🐻||0.61||-0.09|
|Rosewood (some F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.71||0.12|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.67||0.26|
|Sleepy Hollow (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.55||0.09|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.98||0.28|
|Pitch (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.85||0.15|
|Son of Zorn (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.23||0.53|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.99||0.29|
|New Girl (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.95||0.25|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.14||0.44|
|APB (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.5||0.8|
|Star (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.46||0.76|
|The Mick (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.4||0.7|
|24: Legacy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||3.8||3.1|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.43||0.73|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.64||0.94|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.17||0.47|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||2.14||1.44|
*The index number for “Rosewood” is a weighted average of its performance on Thursdays and Fridays.
The premiere of “24: Legacy” ran into some bad luck when the Super Bowl ran into overtime and pushed back its start time to 11 p.m. ET. That probably cost it a couple million viewers and resulted in the smallest post-Super Bowl audience in 14 years.
The show’s time-period debut the next night predictably fell off quite a bit — but not so much that “Legacy” is in any trouble at the moment. The 1.5 rating it drew was above anything “Gotham” did in the same spot earlier in the season. Anything around the network scripted average — currently about 1.3, or 1.2 if you subtract the Super Bowl episode from “Legacy” — should be safe.
“Legacy” has a pretty good chance of staying around there, even factoring out the Super Bowl episode (which is included in the index above, as all episodes are averaged). If a marginal show that FOX doesn’t own like “Lucifer” can be renewed, then an in-house show with similar numbers should be able to score a renewal too.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.