FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 22 of the 2016-17 season pump the brakes a little for a new show.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Bones (O) Final season 0.83 0.13
Scream Queens (O) 🐻 0.61 -0.09
Rosewood (some F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.71 0.12
The Exorcist (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.67 0.26
Sleepy Hollow (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.55 0.09
The Last Man on Earth (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.98 0.28
Pitch (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.85 0.15
Son of Zorn (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.23 0.53
Lucifer Renewed 1.08 0.38
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.99 0.29
New Girl (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.95 0.25
Gotham 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.14 0.44
APB (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.25 0.55
Star (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.43 0.73
The Mick (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.36 0.66
24: Legacy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.93 2.23
Family Guy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.43 0.73
Lethal Weapon 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.63 0.93
Empire (O) Renewed 3.21 2.51
Bob’s Burgers (O) Renewed 1.17 0.47
The Simpsons (O) Renewed 2.14 1.44

*The index number for “Rosewood” is a weighted average of its performance on Thursdays and Fridays.

After “APB” had a pretty decent premiere on Feb. 6, the Bear listed it as a likely renewal.

After episode 2, the Bear realizes maybe he was a little hasty. The show is knocked back to a tossup this week.

Why? Its ratings dropped by a third in week two, falling from 1.5 to 1.0 in adults 18-49. That’s a worrisome decline right out of the gate. Leaving out shows that had post-NFL premieres, only three of the 25 other new series on the Big 4 networks had as big a decline in week 2 — and two of those, “The Good Place” and “Ransom,” aired with better lead-ins outside their usual night. (“The Exorcist” was the other.)

If this is the floor for “APB,” it might be OK, considering it’s a 20th Century Fox show. History suggests it’s not the floor, however, which could be bad news. For now “APB” in limbo.

 

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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