FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 23 of the 2016-17 season consider what the network’s spate of early pickups means.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Bones (O) Final season 0.81 0.11
Scream Queens (O) 🐻 0.61 -0.09
Rosewood (some F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.7 0.13
The Exorcist (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.67 0.26
Sleepy Hollow (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.54 0.07
The Last Man on Earth (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.98 0.28
Pitch (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.85 0.15
Son of Zorn (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.18 0.48
Lucifer Renewed 1.08 0.38
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.99 0.29
New Girl (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.95 0.25
Gotham 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.14 0.44
APB (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.4
Star (O) Renewed 1.4 0.7
The Mick (O) Renewed 1.31 0.61
24: Legacy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.45 1.75
Family Guy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.39 0.69
Lethal Weapon Renewed 1.61 0.91
Empire (O) Renewed 3.21 2.51
Bob’s Burgers (O) Renewed 1.14 0.44
The Simpsons (O) Renewed 2.06 1.36

*The index number for “Rosewood” is a weighted average of its performance on Thursdays and Fridays.

FOX handed out renewals to three shows — “The Mick,” “Lethal Weapon” and “Star” — last week to go along with previous pickups “Empire,” “Lucifer,” “The Simpsons” and “Bob’s Burgers.” Assuming that “Star” once again airs in between the two halves of “Empire’s” run next season, the network has about a third of its weekly schedule for 2017-18 locked down.

None of the pickups is a huge surprise; the Bear had all but “Lucifer” (a tossup) rated as likely renewals or sure things prior to their being renewed. With “Lucifer” and “Star” in particular, however, it may be a signal that FOX is taking a long look at somewhat marginal shows.

That could be good news for, say, “Son of Zorn” or “24: Legacy,” the latter of which didn’t get any kind of Super Bowl honeymoon after moving to its regular night. It also suggests FOX is nowhere near done with the post-“American Idol” rebuilding job it began this season.

FOX’s bubble is looking rather soft this season. It won’t be soft enough to save the likes of “Scream Queens,” but most other shows are probably still in play.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

  • http://foolishwatcher.com/2017/02/28/is-your-favorite-show-about-to-be-cancelled-im-not-trying-to-scare-you-but-maybe-theres-like-a-20-chance-of-yes-definitely/ Is your favorite show about to be cancelled? I’m not trying to scare you, but MAYBE. There’s like a 20% chance of YES, DEFINITELY. – foolish watcher

    […] Does a renewal for Lucifer mean that 24: Legacy is safe? Maybe! […]

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