FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 24 of the 2016-17 season .
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Bones (O)||Final season||0.81||0.11|
|Scream Queens (O)||🐻||0.61||-0.09|
|Rosewood (some F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.7||0.13|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.67||0.26|
|Sleepy Hollow (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.52||0.04|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.98||0.28|
|Pitch (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.85||0.15|
|Making History||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.9||0.2|
|Son of Zorn (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||0.48|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.99||0.29|
|New Girl (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.95||0.25|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.14||0.44|
|APB (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.03||0.33|
|The Mick (O)||Renewed||1.27||0.57|
|24: Legacy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.16||1.46|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.38||0.68|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.11||0.41|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||2.0||1.3|
*The index number for “Rosewood” is a weighted average of its performance on Thursdays and Fridays.
The series debut of “Making History” was the highest-rated time-travel show on TV Sunday night. Then again, its competition was “Time After Time,” so the Bear is damning with faint praise a bit.
The comedy’s 0.9 premiere rating puts it squarely on the bubble for now, as a tossup pending more data. The good news is that it held onto its “Simpsons” lead-in reasonably well. The bad news is that it’s starting below the season average for “Son of Zorn.” But the good news is that “Zorn” also averaged about a 0.9 on Sundays when FOX didn’t have the NFL running into primetime.
You get the idea. The Bear will wait and see what the trend for “Making History” is for the next few weeks. But even in this era, starting below 1.0 is not a great place to be.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.