Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 28 of the 2017-18 season.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.41||-0.11|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻||0.71||0.01|
|The Mick (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.74||0.04|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.84||0.14|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.04||0.34|
|LA to Vegas (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.77||0.07|
|The Resident (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.1||0.4|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.13||0.43|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.19||0.49|
|Ghosted (O)||🐻 🐻||1.18||0.48|
|Lucifer||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.86||0.16|
|The Gifted (O)||Renewed||1.01||0.31|
|Star (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.35||0.65|
|Empire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.92||1.22|
|The Orville (O)||Renewed||0.99||0.29|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.63||0.93|
“Gotham” has been about as tossup as a show can get this season, hovering just above replacement level in adults 18-49 — but also not that that far below a handful of FOX’s other dramas.
In a normal year, that might be juuust enough to get it through to next season. But this is not a normal year for FOX, which is about to enter a transition phase as its sibling studio prepares to become part of Disney.
With that as backdrop, the Bear is pushing “Gotham” down to a likely cancellation.
FOX has already reduced the real estate for scripted shows next fall with its acquisition of “Thursday Night Football.” With ratings unlikely to budge much and coming as it does from an outside studio, “Gotham” just doesn’t have much upside for FOX anymore.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2018|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.