FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 29 of the 2016-17 season note that bad news for one show can be good news for another.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Bones (O)||Final season||0.81||0.11|
|Scream Queens (O)||🐻||0.61||-0.09|
|Rosewood (some F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.68||0.11|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.67||0.26|
|Sleepy Hollow (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.5||0.02|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.94||0.24|
|Pitch (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.85||0.15|
|Making History (O)||🐻 🐻||0.72||0.02|
|Son of Zorn (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||0.48|
|Shots Fired (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.03||0.33|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.99||0.29|
|New Girl (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.93||0.23|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.14||0.44|
|APB (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.83||0.13|
|The Mick (O)||Renewed||1.18||0.48|
|24: Legacy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.52||0.82|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.32||0.62|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.01||0.31|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.83||1.13|
*The index number for “Rosewood” is a weighted average of its performance on Thursdays and Fridays.
Two weeks ago the Bear downgraded “Making History” to a likely cancellation at FOX. Its loss is another show’s gain: “Son of Zorn” is getting bumped up to a likely renewal.
Simply put, FOX doesn’t have a ton of options. Moving “The Mick” to Sundays would weaken an already shaky Tuesday block, and maybe one of the comedy pilots FOX is developing sounds like a Sunday show.
“Zorn’s” ratings weren’t great, and they were inflated by the NFL for about half of its season. But they’re likely good enough to earn a second season. Remember the Bear’s maxim: A show doesn’t have to be the fastest to outrun the Bear; it just has to make sure it’s not the slowest.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.