FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 29 of the 2016-17 season note that bad news for one show can be good news for another.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Bones (O) Final season 0.81 0.11
Scream Queens (O) 🐻 0.61 -0.09
Rosewood (some F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.68 0.11
The Exorcist (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.67 0.26
Sleepy Hollow (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.5 0.02
The Last Man on Earth (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.94 0.24
Pitch (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.85 0.15
Making History (O) 🐻 🐻 0.72 0.02
Son of Zorn (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.18 0.48
Shots Fired (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.03 0.33
Lucifer Renewed 1.08 0.38
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.99 0.29
New Girl (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.93 0.23
Gotham 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.14 0.44
APB (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.83 0.13
Star (O) Renewed 1.35 0.65
The Mick (O) Renewed 1.18 0.48
24: Legacy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.52 0.82
Family Guy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.32 0.62
Lethal Weapon Renewed 1.57 0.87
Empire (O) Renewed 3.03 2.33
Bob’s Burgers (O) Renewed 1.01 0.31
The Simpsons (O) Renewed 1.83 1.13

*The index number for “Rosewood” is a weighted average of its performance on Thursdays and Fridays.

Two weeks ago the Bear downgraded “Making History” to a likely cancellation at FOX. Its loss is another show’s gain: “Son of Zorn” is getting bumped up to a likely renewal.

Simply put, FOX doesn’t have a ton of options. Moving “The Mick” to Sundays would weaken an already shaky Tuesday block, and maybe one of the comedy pilots FOX is developing sounds like a Sunday show.

“Zorn’s” ratings weren’t great, and they were inflated by the NFL for about half of its season. But they’re likely good enough to earn a second season. Remember the Bear’s maxim: A show doesn’t have to be the fastest to outrun the Bear; it just has to make sure it’s not the slowest.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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    […] Son of Zorn might be renewed mostly because Making History is likely to be canceled. […]

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