Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 31 of the 2017-18 season.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
New Girl (O) Final season 0.63 -0.07
The Exorcist (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.41 -0.11
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 🐻 🐻 0.73 0.03
The Mick (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.74 0.04
The Last Man on Earth (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.8 0.1
Gotham 🐻 🐻 0.79 0.09
Lethal Weapon 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.02 0.32
LA to Vegas (O) 🐻 🐻 0.75 0.05
The Resident (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.06 0.36
Bob’s Burgers (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.07 0.37
Family Guy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.16 0.46
Ghosted (O) 🐻 🐻 1.18 0.48
Lucifer 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.85 0.15
The Gifted (O) Renewed 1.01 0.31
Star (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.34 0.64
9-1-1 (O) Renewed 1.64 0.94
Empire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.89 1.19
The Orville (O) Renewed 0.99 0.29
The Simpsons (O) Renewed 1.52 0.82

 

Say this for “LA to Vegas”: It’s been consistent. Seven of the last nine weeks, it’s posted a 0.7 rating in adults 18-49.

Problem is, 0.7 is a replacement-level number, even for a FOX live-action comedy. Thus the Bear downgrades it to likely cancellation.

The ratings profile for “LA to Vegas” isn’t much different from, say, “The Mick” or “The Last Man on Earth” (all are FOX-produced shows) but it has far fewer episodes under its belt, and thus fewer chances for the parent company — whomever that may be in a year’s time — to make money off the back end.

If there are two otherwise equal shows, take the one that’s got a back-end deal. “The Mick” and “Last Man” have them, “LA to Vegas” doesn’t.

Also: After moving “Lethal Weapon” back to a tossup last week, the Bear bumps the show back into the likely-renewal camp. Just a feeling.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2018

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

  • http://foolishwatcher.com/2018/04/28/in-which-i-preach-the-gospel-of-the-two-best-shows-on-tv-right-now/ In which I preach the gospel of the two best shows on TV right now – foolish watcher

    […] LA to Vegas is not looking safe, mostly because it has fewer episodes under its belt than The Mick or Last Man Standing. But Brooklyn Nine-Nine is in danger precisely because it has over 100 episodes. TV bizness is rough. […]

    Like

  • http://benyagoda.com/2018/05/14/the-loneliness-of-watching-last-man-on-earth/ The Loneliness of Watching ‘Last Man on Earth’ | Ben Yagoda's blog

    […] can find out who they are? The ratings would appear to be just too low, but TV analysts give it a just better than even chance to stay alive. Why? Last Man does a bit better with the key 18–49 demographic than with the […]

    Like

  • http://popcultureuncovered.com/2018/05/16/tv-brew-what-the-hell-the-problem-with-fox-cancelling-lucifer/ TV Brew: What the Hell? The Problem with Fox Cancelling Lucifer – Pop Culture Uncovered

    […] the hell out of” fans. That show is really fun and does okay in ratings. According to TV by the Numbers, season-to-date Lucifer has averaged a 0.9 rating in its Mondays-at-8 time slot, down about 20% […]

    Like

blog comments powered by Disqus