FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 32 of the 2016-17 season are pretty well locked in.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Bones (O) Final season 0.81 0.11
Scream Queens (O) 🐻 0.61 -0.09
Rosewood (some F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.66 0.11
The Exorcist (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.67 0.26
Sleepy Hollow (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.5 0.02
The Last Man on Earth (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.93 0.23
Pitch (O) Canceled 0.85 0.15
Making History (O) 🐻 🐻 0.69 -0.01
Son of Zorn (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.18 0.48
Shots Fired (O) 🐻 🐻 0.93 0.23
Lucifer Renewed 1.08 0.38
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.93 0.23
New Girl (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.93 0.23
Gotham 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.13 0.43
APB (O) 🐻 🐻 0.78 0.08
Star (O) Renewed 1.35 0.65
The Mick (O) Renewed 1.14 0.44
24: Legacy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.4 0.7
Family Guy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.32 0.62
Lethal Weapon Renewed 1.57 0.87
Empire (O) Renewed 2.91 2.21
Bob’s Burgers (O) Renewed 0.98 0.28
The Simpsons (O) Renewed 1.79 1.09

*The index number for “Rosewood” is a weighted average of its performance on Thursdays and Fridays.

The Bear is standing pat with his predictions for FOX. Some chatter has bubbled up about “The Exorcist” getting a second season, but the Bear isn’t buying it. He sees that, “Scream Queens,” “Rosewood,” “Making History,” “Sleepy Hollow” and limited series “Shots Fired” being gone next year.

Comedies “Brooklyn Nine-Nine,” “Family Guy,” “The Last Man on Earth,” “New Girl” and “Son of Zorn” remain likely pickups, along with dramas “Gotham” and “24: Legacy.”

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

  • http://foolishwatcher.com/2017/05/03/concern-trolls-demand-stephen-colberts-head-for-a-trump-joke-best-of-luck-with-that-dum-dums/ Concern trolls demand Stephen Colbert’s head for a Trump joke. Best of luck with that, dum-dums. – foolish watcher

    […] Cancel Bear doesn’t seem optimistic about Fox renewing The Exorcist which is a shame as it was one of last season’s pleasant surprises. […]

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