FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 4 of the 2016-17 season bring some good news for one of the network’s new series.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Rosewood (O) 🐻🐻 0.8 0.1
The Exorcist (F) (O) 🐻🐻 0.75 0.37
The Last Man on Earth (O) 🐻🐻🐻 1.0 0.3
Scream Queens (O) 🐻🐻🐻 0.8 0.1
Pitch (O) 🐻🐻🐻 1.03 0.33
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 🐻🐻🐻 1.0 0.3
New Girl (O) 🐻🐻🐻 1.03 0.33
Son of Zorn (O) 🐻🐻🐻 1.4 0.7
Lucifer 🐻🐻🐻 1.13 0.43
Gotham 🐻🐻🐻🐻 1.15 0.45
Family Guy (O) 🐻🐻🐻🐻 1.53 0.83
The Simpsons (O) 🐻🐻🐻🐻 2.1 1.4
Lethal Weapon 🐻🐻🐻🐻 1.95 1.25
Empire (O) 🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻 3.7 3.0
Bob’s Burgers (O) Renewed 1.2 0.5

 

FOX gave the green light to a full season of “Lethal Weapon,” albeit one of only 18 episodes, last week. Right now, odds are it’ll get a second season as well.

The show is the No. 2 new drama of the season, behind “This Is Us,” the No. 3 show on FOX behind “Empire” and “The Simpsons” and thus far a pretty consistent performer. Its four-week average (1.95) is only 11 percent below its premiere rating (2.2), and last week’s episode improved on the previous week.

So why just 18 episodes this season? It’s largely a space consideration, as the network has slated its limited series “Shots Fired” for 8 o’clock on Wednesdays in the spring. It certainly doesn’t seem like a hedge against iffy ratings.

Regardless of the episode count, “Lethal Weapon” is currently a likely renewal for next season.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻🐻🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻🐻🐻🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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