FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 4 of the 2016-17 season bring some good news for one of the network’s new series.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻🐻||0.75||0.37|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻🐻🐻||1.0||0.3|
|Scream Queens (O)||🐻🐻🐻||0.8||0.1|
|New Girl (O)||🐻🐻🐻||1.03||0.33|
|Son of Zorn (O)||🐻🐻🐻||1.4||0.7|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻🐻🐻🐻||1.53||0.83|
|The Simpsons (O)||🐻🐻🐻🐻||2.1||1.4|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.2||0.5|
FOX gave the green light to a full season of “Lethal Weapon,” albeit one of only 18 episodes, last week. Right now, odds are it’ll get a second season as well.
The show is the No. 2 new drama of the season, behind “This Is Us,” the No. 3 show on FOX behind “Empire” and “The Simpsons” and thus far a pretty consistent performer. Its four-week average (1.95) is only 11 percent below its premiere rating (2.2), and last week’s episode improved on the previous week.
So why just 18 episodes this season? It’s largely a space consideration, as the network has slated its limited series “Shots Fired” for 8 o’clock on Wednesdays in the spring. It certainly doesn’t seem like a hedge against iffy ratings.
Regardless of the episode count, “Lethal Weapon” is currently a likely renewal for next season.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻🐻🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻🐻🐻🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.