Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 6 of the 2017-18 season. They foresee the end coming for a comedy series.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.44||-0.07|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻||0.65||-0.05|
|The Mick (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.85||0.15|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.86||0.16|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.9||0.2|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.05||0.35|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.28||0.58|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.24||0.54|
|Ghosted (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||0.48|
|Lucifer||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.92||0.22|
|The Gifted (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||0.48|
|Star (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.5||0.8|
|Empire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.03||1.33|
|The Orville (O)||Renewed||1.04||0.34|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.56||0.86|
“Brooklyn Nine-Nine” will cross the 100-episode mark in early 2818. Its afterlife is secured, with a streaming deal on Hulu and syndication on TBS.
FOX, however, won’t be the one collection that back-end money, since the show comes from Universal TV. Even with its live-action comedies struggling, FOX seems unlikely to carry another season of “Nine-Nine,” which is pulling ratings under replacement level so far this fall.
The network and the show’s producers may get together to announce an ending ahead of time, or FOX may just let “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” go in the spring. Either way, the Bear expects the series will end its run in 2017-18, and thus it moves to a likely cancellation.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2018|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.