FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 6 of the 2016-17 season doesn’t put a ton of stock in a full-season pickup for a second-year show.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Rosewood (O)||🐻 🐻||0.8||0.1|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.74||0.36|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.98||0.28|
|Scream Queens (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.75||0.05|
|Pitch (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.94||0.24|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.98||0.28|
|New Girl (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.0||0.3|
|Son of Zorn (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.3||0.6|
|Lucifer||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.1||0.4|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.15||0.45|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.45||0.75|
|The Simpsons (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.0||1.3|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.9||1.2|
|Empire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||3.7||3.0|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.27||0.57|
FOX has given “Lucifer” a full 22-episode order for its second season. Which probably says as much or more about the sorry state of dramas at the network than anything about the merits of “Lucifer” itself.
The show is averaging a 1.1 rating so far this season, just 0.4 above replacement level and below FOX’s scripted average even if you remove “Empire” from the equation. And yet it’s a middle-of-the-pack player for the network, substantially behind “Empire” and “Lethal Weapon” yet ahead of “Rosewood,” “Pitch” and “The Exorcist.” Monday-night companion “Gotham” is right in line with it.
FOX doesn’t own the show, so its incentives to keep it on the air aren’t as great as they would be for a show that came from in house. It will get an extra nine episodes to prove (or hang) itself later this season, but it’s likely to remain in tossup territory until the Bear gets a look at how FOX’s other dramas perform in the winter.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.