Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 7 of the 2017-18 season, which don’t like the chances for a struggling second-year show.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.43||-0.09|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻||0.64||-0.06|
|The Mick (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.82||0.12|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.87||0.17|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.9||0.2|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.04||0.34|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.28||0.58|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.27||0.57|
|Ghosted (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.2||0.5|
|Lucifer||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.93||0.23|
|The Gifted (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.15||0.45|
|Star (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.44||0.74|
|Empire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.98||1.28|
|The Orville (O)||Renewed||1.03||0.33|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.62||0.92|
If there’s a lesson to be learned from the past couple TV seasons, it’s that renewing marginally rated shows tends not to go all that well.
“The Exorcist” was such a show last season; the Bear had it as a likely cancellation, but FOX renewed it. Turns out the sequel hasn’t lived up to the (modest) benchmark set by its predecessor.
Ratings are off by 36 percent vs. last season, and even for Fridays, the show is coming in under replacement level. That’s not sustainable, and the Bear once again has “The Exorcist” rated as a likely cancellation.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2018|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.