Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 8 of the 2017-18 season, which are slightly optimistic on a second-year show.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
The Exorcist (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.43 -0.09
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 🐻 🐻 0.63 -0.07
The Mick (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.8 0.1
The Last Man on Earth (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.84 0.14
Gotham 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.9 0.2
Lethal Weapon 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.03 0.33
Bob’s Burgers (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.24 0.54
Family Guy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.21 0.51
Ghosted (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.14 0.44
Lucifer 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.94 0.24
The Gifted (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.13 0.43
Star (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.4 0.7
Empire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.98 1.28
The Orville (O) Renewed 1.01 0.31
The Simpsons (O) Renewed 1.54 0.84

 

“Lethal Weapon’s” sophomore season has not panned out the way FOX had hoped. The show’s ratings are off by a third vs. last season, and the show’s ability to survive away from “Empire,” a job it did reasonably well last season, hasn’t really carried over to its new home on Tuesdays.

Despite all that, the Bear is (cautiously) moving “Lethal Weapon” into likely renewal territory.

Take out “Empire” at the top and “The Exorcist” at the bottom, and almost all of FOX’s other dramas (save “Star,” which has a bit of separation) are muddled in a big, mediocre, 0.9-1.1 rating clump.

What might give “Lethal Weapon” a small advantage is FOX’s relative dearth of procedurals. They’re valuable pieces to have when putting together a schedule, and the Bear’s money is on the show being part of FOX’s schedule next season.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2018

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

  • http://foolishwatcher.com/2017/11/22/hey-heres-some-good-news-for-a-refreshing-forking-change/ Hey, here’s some ‘Good’ news, for a refreshing forking change. – foolish watcher

    […] Lethal Weapon‘s ratings are slipping, but if they hold steady, it might be enough for renewal. […]

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