FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 9 of the 2016-17 season feature a show that’s doing just enough to get renewed.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Scream Queens (O)||🐻 🐻||0.72||0.02|
|Rosewood (O)||🐻 🐻||0.78||0.08|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.69||0.29|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.97||0.27|
|Pitch (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.88||0.18|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.97||0.27|
|Son of Zorn (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.28||0.58|
|Lucifer||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.06||0.36|
|New Girl (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.0||0.3|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.14||0.44|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.43||0.73|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.86||1.16|
|Empire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||3.47||2.77|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.18||0.48|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.98||1.28|
“Gotham” doesn’t have the full weight of the Third Season Rule behind it, since it airs on FOX and is produced by Warner Bros. But the show is still likely to make it back next season.
Along with most of broadcast TV, “Gotham” has declined year to year. It’s averaging a 1.14 rating so far this fall, down 24.5 percent from the 1.51 it had at the same time last season. That’s a somewhat steeper fall than the network scripted average, which is off about 16 percent vs. the same time a year ago.
But there’s also this: If you remove “Empire” and its outlier numbers from the FOX average, “Gotham’s” 18-49 rating is right on par with the rest of the network. It hasn’t been a banner season for FOX’s regular lineup, to say the least, but “Gotham” is doing no worse than anything else.
Faint praise, to be sure, but its performance and the incentives both studio and network have to keep it going should see “Gotham” through to 2017-18.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.