Here are NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 1 of 2017-18. They don’t look great for a new, trend-riding drama.

Show Status 18-49 rating
Renew/Cancel Index
The Blacklist 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.4
The Brave 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 0.6
Great News (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 0.6
Law & Order True Crime (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.6 0.9
Chicago PD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 0.6
Superstore (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 0.6
Law & Order: SVU (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.4 0.7
The Good Place (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.4 0.7
Chicago Fire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.5 0.8
Will & Grace (O) Renewed 3.0 2.3
This Is Us Renewed 3.9 3.2

 

It’s early days, but if this season’s military dramas play out the way last season’s time-travel shows did, we’ll have some new words to live by: Never trust a network development trend.

CBS’ “SEAL Team” did all right with its premiere. NBC’s “The Brave” was less than good, squandering half of its “Voice” lead-in and finishing with a lower 18-49 rating (1.3) than either post-“Voice” show last season (“Timeless” premiered at 1.8 in the fall, “Taken” at 1.4 in late winter).

Even with “The Voice” down from last season, this is not a good start for “The Brave.” The fact that it’s week 1 makes the show a tossup for the time being, but the Bear wouldn’t be surprised to see it downgrade later in the fall.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2018

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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