NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 10 of the 2016-17 season revisit a first-year show that’s still in bubble territory.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.16||0.46|
|Blindspot||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||0.48|
|Timeless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.36||0.66|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.34||0.64|
|Superstore (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.26||0.56|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.39||0.69|
|The Good Place (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.38||0.68|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.5||0.80|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.58||0.88|
|This Is Us||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.56||1.86|
Earlier in the fall, the Bear noted that “Timeless” needed to find some stability fairly quickly since its ratings were unspectacular (particularly for a show following “The Voice”).
It has found that stability, but at a level lower than anything that would make it a comfortable bet for renewal.
Since hitting a low rating of 1.1 on Halloween, the series has scored a 1.2 in each of its past two episodes. For comparison’s sake, “Blindspot” had gone below 2.0 only once at this time last season (though it would end well below there in the spring).
The shorter season for “Timeless” (16 episodes) could end up being beneficial in that regard: It will end in February, when TV viewing levels are still relatively high, and avoid a near-inevitable spring swoon.
To answer the question in the headline, stable ratings at where the show is now probably won’t be enough to earn a second run. It will depend in part on how some of NBC’s other rookies perform later in the season. The Bear is keeping “Timeless” in tossup territory for now.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.