NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 11 of the 2016-17 season take a step back to look at the season thus far.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.16||0.46|
|Blindspot||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||0.48|
|Timeless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.33||0.63|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.34||0.64|
|Superstore (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.26||0.56|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.39||0.69|
|The Good Place (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.38||0.68|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.5||0.80|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.6||0.90|
|This Is Us||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.58||1.88|
As of this posting, NBC has all of three hours of scripted programming to air between now and the new year — fall finales of “This Is Us” and “Chicago Fire” Tuesday night and “Timeless” next week.
So now is as good a time as any to assess how the network did this fall. Turns out, it did pretty well.
Yes, “Timeless” ought to be doing better coming out of “The Voice” than it is, and “The Blacklist” has suffered this season, and “Blindspot” is way down too with the move to Wednesday.
But “This Is Us” has provided a huge bump. Thursday is actually a little better off than it was at this time last year. And “Blindspot” is at least doing marginally better than “The Mysteries of Laura” (1.18 vs. 1.11).
As a whole, NBC’s scripted shows are up about 5 percent vs. the same week in 2015. Probably not everything will survive the season, but you could make a not-insane case for each show the network has aired this fall coming back in 2017-18. The Bear may have to get fat on something other than Peacock.
Programming note: Because NBC is more or less done with its fall programming, this will be the last full post for the network until the new year. The Bear will update averages for the next two weeks but won’t have any new analysis, barring something exceedingly strange happening.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.