NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 16 of the 2016-17 season aren’t overly enamored of a new drama’s prospects.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Grimm (F) (O)||Final season||0.9||0.59|
|Emerald City (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.0||0.73|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.14||0.44|
|Blindspot||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.17||0.47|
|Timeless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.28||0.58|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.32||0.62|
|Superstore (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.25||0.55|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.43||0.73|
|The Good Place (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.33||0.63|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.5||0.80|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.61||0.91|
|This Is Us||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.6||1.90|
“Emerald City” put up a pretty-good-for-Friday premiere rating of 1.0 last week. It’s a decent start for the show. But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves just yet.
It’s starting as a tossup for renewal until further evidence comes in. “The Exorcist” premiered at 1.0 on a Friday this season too, then quickly lost a good portion of that audience.
If “Emerald City” can keep hovering around the 1.0 mark, NBC might be inclined to give it another shot, particularly since Friday mainstay “Grimm” is exiting after this season. But if it fades considerably over the course of its 10 episodes, look for the network to cut its losses after a season.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.