NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 18 of the 2016-17 season consider the chances for a show that just finished its season.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Grimm (F) (O)||Final season||0.83||0.49|
|Emerald City (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.83||0.49|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.11||0.41|
|Blindspot||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.13||0.43|
|Timeless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.25||0.55|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.31||0.61|
|Superstore (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.25||0.55|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.45||0.75|
|The Good Place (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.29||0.59|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.48||0.78|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.61||0.91|
|This Is Us||Renewed||2.64||1.94|
NBC’s switch away from more niche comedies like “Community” and “Parks and Recreation” didn’t last very long. Turns out the supposedly “broad-appeal” shows the network tried in recent seasons didn’t have very broad appeal.
This season, NBC has leaned hard into the quirk with its comedies (the down-to-earth “Superstore” excepted). “The Good Place” is exhibit A of the trend, but it has probably done enough to earn a second season.
NBC did the show no favors with scheduling, airing nine episodes in the fall (including an hour-long premiere), then giving the heavily serialized show a two-month break before wrapping up in just three more weeks (bookending the season with an hour-long finale). “Thursday Night Football” gave NBC a big boost in late fall, but it may have come at the expense of its regular shows, all of which have been on the low side since returning.
NBC knows that as well as the Bear does and will surely take it into account when deciding on its renewals for next season. “The Good Place” will probably be among them.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.