Here are NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 1 of the 2017-18 season. The Cancel Bear is skeptical about a second-year show.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.05||0.35|
|The Brave||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.2||0.5|
|Great News (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.15||0.45|
|Law & Order True Crime (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.35||0.65|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.25||0.55|
|Superstore (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.25||0.55|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.35||0.65|
|The Good Place (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.3||0.6|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.35||0.65|
|Will & Grace (O)||Renewed||2.5||1.8|
|This Is Us||Renewed||3.5||2.8|
“Great News” has put up two of its three best adults 18-49 ratings to date in its first two episodes this season. The Bear, however, remains skeptical of its chances for a third season.
Those two ratings this season followed “Will & Grace,” and in each case “Great News” lost at least half of its lead-in rating. It’s currently retaining just 46 percent of “Will & Grace’s” 18-49 rating, and it’s the weakest of NBC’s four Thursday comedies so far.
NBC renewed “Great News” with smaller numbers last year, so it isn’t dead yet. But that tossup ranking in the chart above can be read as a soft one.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2018|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.