NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 20 of the 2016-17 season say a new show didn’t get off to the best start.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Grimm (F) (O)||Final season||0.82||0.47|
|Emerald City (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.74||0.36|
|Powerless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.1||0.4|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.11||0.41|
|Blindspot||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.13||0.43|
|Timeless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.19||0.49|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.31||0.61|
|Superstore (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.24||0.54|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.45||0.75|
|The Good Place (O)||Renewed||1.29||0.59|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.48||0.78|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.63||0.93|
|This Is Us||Renewed||2.65||1.95|
The premiere of “Powerless” matched the 18-49 rating for the finale of “The Good Place” a couple weeks prior. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that rating was only a 1.1. In the current climate that’s probably a borderline number, but “Powerless” isn’t likely to stay there.
With rare exceptions, a premiere tends to be among the two or three highest-rated episodes in a show’s season. “Powerless” is more likely to go down than up from here.
How far down will determine the show’s future. One episode in, the Bear is labeling “Powerless” a tossup for renewal. If it can more or less maintain its ratings then a renewal wouldn’t be out of the question.
If not? Well, there are always more DC Comics movies on the horizon.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.