NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 20 of the 2016-17 season say a new show didn’t get off to the best start.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Grimm (F) (O) Final season 0.82 0.47
Emerald City (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.74 0.36
Powerless 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.4
The Blacklist 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.11 0.41
Blindspot 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.13 0.43
Timeless 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.19 0.49
Chicago Med (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.31 0.61
Superstore (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.24 0.54
Chicago PD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.45 0.75
The Good Place (O) Renewed 1.29 0.59
Law & Order: SVU (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.48 0.78
Chicago Fire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.63 0.93
This Is Us Renewed 2.65 1.95

 

The premiere of “Powerless” matched the 18-49 rating for the finale of “The Good Place” a couple weeks prior. That’s the good news.

The bad news is that rating was only a 1.1. In the current climate that’s probably a borderline number, but “Powerless” isn’t likely to stay there.

With rare exceptions, a premiere tends to be among the two or three highest-rated episodes in a show’s season. “Powerless” is more likely to go down than up from here.

How far down will determine the show’s future. One episode in, the Bear is labeling “Powerless” a tossup for renewal. If it can more or less maintain its ratings then a renewal wouldn’t be out of the question.

If not? Well, there are always more DC Comics movies on the horizon.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

  • http://foolishwatcher.com/2017/02/08/here-are-a-bunch-of-trailers-to-watch-to-keep-your-mind-off-of-the-fact-the-world-is-burning/ Here are a bunch of trailers to watch to keep your mind off of the fact the world is burning. – foolish watcher

    […] Powerless debuted with the same numbers as The Good Place‘s finale, which is not terrific news because the premiere is usually the highest rated episode. And since The Good Place has already been renewed, it makes it that much harder for Powerless. […]

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