NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 21 of the 2016-17 season predict a long time in limbo for a show about to end its season.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Grimm (F) (O)||Final season||0.8||0.44|
|Emerald City (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.72||0.33|
|Powerless||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.95||0.25|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.08||0.38|
|Blindspot||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.12||0.42|
|Timeless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.15||0.45|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.31||0.61|
|Superstore (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.23||0.53|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.43||0.73|
|The Good Place (O)||Renewed||1.29||0.59|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.49||0.79|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.62||0.92|
|This Is Us||Renewed||2.64||1.94|
“Timeless” ends its season next week, and it will probably end as a tossup, where it’s been basically all season. In sports terms, the show doesn’t control its own destiny.
Whether the show gets a second season may depend on how “Taken” performs in same timeslot in the spring, along with how the rest of NBC’s remaining newcomers do as the season winds down.
“Timeless” might have been able to get by on its own had it continued to hover around the 0.9 it had for its three episodes in January. The drop to a 0.6 last week is worrying. Unless a big rebound happens in the final two installments, “Timeless” will have to wait and see how the network fares in spring before learning its fate.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.