NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 23 of the 2016-17 season are not very high on a new addition to the lineup.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Grimm (F) (O) Final season 0.8 0.44
Emerald City (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.69 0.29
The Blacklist: Redemption 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.8 0.1
Powerless 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.85 0.15
The Blacklist 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.06 0.36
Blindspot 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.09 0.39
Timeless 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.12 0.42
Chicago Med (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.28 0.58
Superstore (O) Renewed 1.21 0.51
Chicago PD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.42 0.72
The Good Place (O) Renewed 1.29 0.59
Law & Order: SVU (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.48 0.78
Chicago Fire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.61 0.91
This Is Us Renewed 2.63 1.93

 

The numbers for “The Blacklist: Redemption don’t paint a very redemptive picture with its premiere. Like a number of new 10 p.m. dramas before it this season, the show put up a sub-1.0 rating for its first episode.

That’s 24 percent below the average for “Redemption’s” parent show, “The Blacklist” — which is itself down 26 percent vs. last season.

Those are not numbers NBC wants to hear when it’s trying to expand a franchise. The network’s wish to do so (and the small sample size) leaves “Redemption” as a tossup after week 1. But it’s on a very short leash.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

  • http://foolishwatcher.com/2017/02/28/is-your-favorite-show-about-to-be-cancelled-im-not-trying-to-scare-you-but-maybe-theres-like-a-20-chance-of-yes-definitely/ Is your favorite show about to be cancelled? I’m not trying to scare you, but MAYBE. There’s like a 20% chance of YES, DEFINITELY. – foolish watcher

    […] The Blacklist: Redemption does not look particularly redemptive. […]

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