NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 25 of the 2016-17 season are a little cautious about a new show’s prospects.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Grimm (F) (O)||Final season||0.79||0.43|
|Emerald City (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.69||0.29|
|The Blacklist: Redemption||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.83||0.13|
|Powerless||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.82||0.12|
|Shades of Blue (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.0||0.3|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.06||0.36|
|Blindspot||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.09||0.39|
|Timeless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.12||0.42|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.29||0.59|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.42||0.72|
|The Good Place (O)||Renewed||1.29||0.59|
|Taken (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.4||0.7|
|Chicago Justice (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.55||0.85|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.48||0.78|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.61||0.91|
|This Is Us||Renewed||2.64||1.94|
Note: Because of Nielsen delays, averages for Sunday shows are through March 5. March 12 ratings will be factored in next week.
After two episodes, ratings for “Taken” are trailing those of “Timeless” after two episodes. Taking into account fall vs. spring, the difference — 1.4 thus far for “Taken” compared to 1.6 for “Timeless” two weeks in — isn’t that big. But it’s worth watching in the coming weeks.
If the two shows end up roughly equal in the ratings, and if NBC opts to take only one of them next season, the smart money would be on “Taken.” It’s owned by NBCUniversal where “Timeless” is not. But that’s predicated on “Taken” finding some stability for the remainder of the season.
“Taken’s” week 2 drop is cause for concern — enough for the Bear to scale back from likely renewal to tossup for now. It could earn that extra bear face back with some consistency post-daylight saving. But it’s not there yet.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.