NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 29 of the 2016-17 season downgrade a pair of first-year shows.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Grimm (F) (O)||Final season||0.8||0.44|
|Emerald City (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.69||0.29|
|The Blacklist: Redemption||🐻 🐻||0.77||0.07|
|Shades of Blue (O)||Renewed||0.82||0.12|
|Trial & Error||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.01||0.31|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.06||0.36|
|Blindspot||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.04||0.34|
|Timeless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.12||0.42|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.26||0.56|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.41||0.71|
|The Good Place (O)||Renewed||1.29||0.59|
|Taken (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.12||0.42|
|Chicago Justice (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.19||0.49|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.41||0.71|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.58||0.88|
|This Is Us||Renewed||2.68||1.98|
The Bear is clearing out tossup predictions as the season winds down. Sorry, “The Blacklist: Redemption” and “Emerald City” — you’re downgraded to likely cancellations.
NBC waited at least a year too long to try a “Blacklist” spinoff. The bloom has faded for the original show, and “Redemption” has barely kept itself above replacement level thus far during its run.
“Emerald City” didn’t do too badly in its Friday spot, but it’s also a show NBC spent two years dickering with — including scrapping it entirely at one point before reversing course — before finally scheduling it this fall. NBC will probably play the “it was intended as a limited series” card (it was, to be fair, marketed as such) and let it go.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.