NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 31 of the 2016-17 season look at the relative merits of two shows that shared a time period this season.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Grimm (F) (O) Final season 0.8 0.44
Emerald City (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.69 0.29
The Blacklist: Redemption 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.06
Powerless 🐻 🐻 0.73 0.03
Shades of Blue (O) Renewed 0.79 0.09
Trial & Error 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.92 0.22
The Blacklist 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.04 0.34
Blindspot 🐻 🐻 1.04 0.34
Timeless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.12 0.42
Chicago Med (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.26 0.56
Superstore (O) Renewed 1.18 0.48
Chicago PD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.41 0.71
The Good Place (O) Renewed 1.29 0.59
Taken (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.05 0.35
Chicago Justice (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.14 0.44
Law & Order: SVU (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.41 0.71
Chicago Fire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.58 0.88
This Is Us Renewed 2.68 1.98

 

This is a tale of two shows that mostly squandered a prime timeslot, of two of the bigger question marks heading into the final few weeks of the 2016-17 TV season, of whether a network can reasonably keep one or both shows on the air.

It’s tempting to look at “Timeless” and “Taken” as an either-or situation, since both occupied the post-“Voice” spot on Mondays this season. But it doesn’t have to be a zero-sum game.

On numbers alone, “Timeless” is in slightly better shape, but only slightly — it may end the season a little over a tenth of a point in front of “Taken.” “Taken,” meanwhile, has the advantage of being produced in-house by Universal Television. The Bear’s maxim is that all other things being equal, a show owned by the studio affiliated with its network is more likely to return than one from an outside supplier.

So where does that leave these two? The Bear is bumping up “Timeless” to a likely renewal, on gut feeling as much as anything. “Taken” is staying at a tossup for one more week.

It has been a weird season of TV, and the Bear wouldn’t be overly surprised if both shows — or neither of them — come back next year.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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