The broadcast networks announce their 2017-18 schedules the week of May 15, so it’s time for the Bear’s last predictions for renewal or cancellation. Nearly every series still in limbo will know its fate by the end of this week.

Renewal chances for the 11 undecided NBC shows are below. The Bear still thinks “Timeless” will find a way onto the schedule, though maybe not by much. All four “Chicago” shows are good bets, none better than “Chicago Fire.”

After opening as a tossup last week, “Great News” downgrades to a likely cancellation. “Trial & Error” has a slightly better chance but still looks like it will be one and done. The Status column will update as more decisions are made.

Show Renew/Cancel Index Renewal chances Status
The Blacklist: Redemption 0.06 15% Canceled 5/12
Great News 0.2 33% Renewed 5/11
Taken 0.3 35% Renewed 5/9
Blindspot 0.33 38% Renewed 5/10
Trial & Error 0.22 40%
Timeless 0.42 60% Renewed 5/13*
Chicago Justice 0.44 67%
Chicago Med 0.54 75% Renewed 5/10
The Blacklist 0.31 80% Renewed 5/11
Law & Order: SVU 0.66 85% Renewed 5/12
Chicago PD 0.69 90% Renewed 5/10
Chicago Fire 0.85 95% Renewed 5/10

*NBC initially opted to cancel “Timeless,” then changed its mind and renewed the show.

Already renewed: “The Good Place,” “Shades of Blue,” “Superstore,” “This Is Us”

Already canceled/ended: “Emerald City,” “Grimm,” “Powerless”

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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    […] Timeless might just squeak by (although with the renewal of Taken, it might be […]

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    […] seems most likely to be. Similarly, returning shows are based on what’s already renewed and The Cancel Bear’s predictions for what will come […]

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