NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 4 of the 2016-17 season offer a word of warning for one of the network’s new shows.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Blindspot||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.25||0.55|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.2||0.5|
|Timeless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.6||0.9|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.33||0.63|
|Superstore (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.4||0.7|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.48||0.78|
|The Good Place (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.6||0.9|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.55||0.9|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.8||1.1|
|This Is Us||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.73||2.03|
There’s no need for any time-travel jokes about “Timeless” needing to go back to the past two weeks and get more people to watch. What the show needs to do now is keep hold of the viewers it does have.
“Timeless” premiered to a 1.8 rating in adults 18-49, then dipped to 1.4 in episode 2. On its own, a 1.6 average is fairly healthy for 2016. But coming out of “The Voice,” that’s not a great number.
Consider “Blindspot” premiered to a 3.1 rating last year, and stayed above a 2.0 for all but one of its fall episodes before fading in the spring. Prior to that “The Blacklist” was never below a 2.3 on Mondays for its season and a half there.
“Timeless” is a tossup call for renewal or cancellation at the moment. If it can keep from falling much further for the remainder of the fall, its chances will improve. If, however, the downward trend continues, then the Bear will have to downgrade the show too.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.