Here are NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 5 of the 2017-18 season, which ponder what to do with a veteran show.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
The Blacklist 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.96 0.26
The Brave 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.4
Great News (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.02 0.32
Law & Order True Crime (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.16 0.46
Blindspot (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.7 0.30
Chicago PD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.18 0.48
Superstore (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.18 0.48
Law & Order: SVU (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.26 0.56
The Good Place (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.2 0.5
Chicago Fire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.22 0.52
Will & Grace (O) Renewed 2.06 1.36
This Is Us Renewed 3.1 2.4

 

The Bear was all ready to downgrade “The Blacklist” and make an argument that this would be the show’s final season. Then the Bear remembered two things: The show isn’t down that much (0.96 in adults 18-49 vs. 1.16 this time last season), and Netflix is paying $2 million per episode for streaming rights.

Thus, the show is remaining a tossup for the time being. The Bear isn’t confident enough in a sub-1.0 rating to upgrade the show to a likely renewal, but the Netflix factor prevents a downgrade as well.

That could change, of course. But for now “The Blacklist” is the definition of a fence-sitting show.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2018

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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