NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 6 of the 2016-17 season believe a shorter-run show may be able to survive with somewhat marginal ratings.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.17||0.47|
|Blindspot||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.22||0.52|
|Timeless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.5||0.8|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.33||0.63|
|Superstore (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.28||0.58|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.44||0.74|
|The Good Place (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.4||0.7|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.54||0.84|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.67||0.97|
|This Is Us||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.64||1.9|
Because it’s so heavily serialized, “The Good Place” is only going to run for 13 episodes this season. That may end up working in its favor for a second season.
The show has leveled off since a pretty strong premiere after “The Voice” at the start of the season; take away that and it’s averaging a 1.25 for the season so far. That’s essentially equal to the 1.28 for its lead-in, “Superstore.”
As the Bear noted a few weeks ago about “Superstore,” those numbers are nothing to write home about. But as NBC tries to re-establish its comedy brand, it’s likely to tolerate lower ratings if it thinks the shows pulling them are the kind it wants to make.
There’s some evidence from recent seasons that networks are willing to tolerate marginal ratings from shorter-run shows. Couple that with the fact that “The Good Place” improved week to week opposite CBS’ comedy premieres last week and it seems likely to get a second shot next season.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.