NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 8 of the 2016-17 season give a trio of shows a pretty good chance at returning.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
The Blacklist 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.16 0.46
Blindspot 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.19 0.49
Timeless 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.42 0.72
Chicago Med (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.34 0.64
Superstore (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.26 0.56
Chicago PD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.42 0.72
The Good Place (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.38 0.68
Law & Order: SVU (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.5 0.80
Chicago Fire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.63 0.93
This Is Us 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.58 1.88

 

Pick your favorite Chicago-based show on NBC. “Fire”? Very likely to return next season. “PD”? Also a safe bet. “Med”? Not performing as well as last season but also in the safe zone.

It is no secret that Dick Wolf’s city- and profession-spanning franchise has done good things for NBC. “Fire” is the network’s second highest-rated scripted show and will hit 100 episodes in a couple weeks. “PD” is fourth on the network (behind another Wolf show, “Law & Order: SVU”) and “Med” sixth, the latter helping stabilize NBC’s Thursday lineup a bit this season.

The strength of the franchise will really be tested later in the season when the fourth show set in the Windy City, “Chicago Justice,” comes online. No multi-show franchise has kept four shows on the air at once for an extended period of time, so there may be some suspense there come spring.

For now, though, “Chicago” is looking pretty good across the board.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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