NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 9 of the 2016-17 season examine the season’s top-rated new show.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
The Blacklist 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.16 0.46
Blindspot 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.18 0.48
Timeless 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.38 0.68
Chicago Med (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.34 0.64
Superstore (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.26 0.56
Chicago PD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.39 0.69
The Good Place (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.38 0.68
Law & Order: SVU (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.5 0.80
Chicago Fire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.6 0.90
This Is Us 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.59 1.89

 

The Bear has had “This Is Us” as a lock for renewal since the outset of the season, and that’s not changing. But it’s Thanksgiving week and NBC only had 10 scripted shows on the air this fall, half of which are on already on hiatus till the new year. So let’s delve more deeply into what makes “This Is Us” a cinch for renewal.

It’s the top-rated new show of the season by a healthy margin, running almost 30 percent ahead of No. 2 show “Kevin Can Wait.” It would also have been No. 1 at this time last season, outpacing “Blindspot.”

And where “Blindspot” had begun its slow downward trajectory by this point, “This Is Us” hasn’t really shown any signs of fading. Its season average of 2.59 in adults 18-49 is less than 8 percent off its premiere (2.8). Even its lowest rating to date (opposite Game 6 of the World Series) is only half a point worse than its highest.

What the Bear is saying is that “This Is Us” will be around a while.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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