Here are The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 10 of the 2017-18 season. They invoke a near-universal rule of TV.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Valor 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.23 0.03
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.2 0.0
Jane the Virgin 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.25 0.05
Dynasty 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.23 0.03
Arrow 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.54 0.34
Supernatural 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.6 0.4
Riverdale 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.59 0.39
Supergirl 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.55 0.35
Legends of Tomorrow 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.55 0.35
The Flash 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.93 0.73

 

Here’s a pretty ironclad rule: Networks don’t just up and cancel their top-rated shows.

So even though “The Flash” is down about 22 percent vs. last season, and even though it didn’t benefit nearly as much from the network’s annual superhero crossover as its DC brethren did, the show is still No. 1 on The CW by a large margin and is a mortal lock to be renewed.

Why? Because, say it with the Bear, networks don’t just up and cancel their top-rated shows.

Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2018

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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